Triumph or Tragedy? Ron DeSantis and the Pitfalls of Peaking too Early.
It would be an understatement to suggest that Ron DeSantis had a good midterms. Florida’s second term governor won by a staggering 19 percentage points (the most by a governor in over 40 years) up from just a 0.4 percent win in 2018. Compare that to former president Donald Trump whose endorsed candidates underperformed and failed to bring on the so called “Red Wave”. That could only mean one thing. DeSantis has a big fat red target on his back and if he were to throw his hat into the ring for the 2024 Republican nomination he should consult the not too distant past.
While Trump is still wildly favoured in the Republican Party Ron DeSantis is seen to be the current leader of the pack. A GOP poll around the time of the 2022 midterms revealed that DeSantis was more popular than the Don in Texas by a staggering 11 points. Something no politician has been able to do in the Trump era. He has been the inspiration for many new laws sweeping the Texas legislature with some saying that he wields more power than current governor Greg Abbott and is “calling the shots.”
This is all good and well for Governor DeSantis but there are perils to peaking too early. Enter former Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, who was an early frontrunner in 2016. The governor of a swing state and a formidable fundraiser DeSantis and Walker are not too dissimilar. However, Walkers campaign fizzled out. Something DeSantis should be aware of.
Walkers demise wasn’t due to any major scandal or political gaffe at all. It all came down to two crucial things. First, the fact that Walker, much like DeSantis, was untested on the national stage. Not known for his natural charisma DeSantis can be a bit rough around the edges and he might not have the experience of Donald Trump and his schoolboy bullying antics. Secondly, everyone is out to catch the front runner, or as senator John Corbyn puts it, the front runner is the “main spear-catcher.” Walker was the main target of political criticism early on especially from Donald Trump and his supporters. We can already see growing criticism from within the Republican Party towards DeSantis with governor Sununu claiming that DeSantis’s posture towards private businesses that disagree with him crosses a line.
Front runners have also consistently been criticized for their inability to strike while the iron is hot and not campaigning hard enough in the lead up to the Iowa and New Hampshire caucuses. Rather, waiting for their own home caucus to throw in their full weight behind a campaign effort like former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani who, by the time of the New York primary, was too far behind his rivals.
All in all there are many lessons for DeSantis to learn as his prospective path to the White House is a treacherous one. Riddled with obstacles and challenges. Most set out by his own party. It is interesting to consider what 2023 and 2024 will hold for the conservative firebrand. The cards are on the deck and DeSantis has an unusually strong hand. What he will do with it, is a question only he can answer.
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